MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS

SHI Ming-xiao; QUI Wu-jun; CHEN Yi-qiu; XU Feng

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MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS

Research Article | 更新时间：2021-03-19

- MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS
- Acta Polymerica Sinica Issue 5, Pages: 577-583(1991)
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- Published：20 October 1991，
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SHI Ming-xiao, QUI Wu-jun, CHEN Yi-qiu, XU Feng. MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS. [J]. Acta Polymerica Sinica (5):577-583(1991)
DOI：

SHI Ming-xiao, QUI Wu-jun, CHEN Yi-qiu, XU Feng. MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS. [J]. Acta Polymerica Sinica (5):577-583(1991) DOI：

摘要

本文利用Monte Carlo方法模拟了二元共聚反应的链增长过程

并给出了估计竞聚率的概率统计处理。从统计观点上讲

这是一种在参数空间对每个栅格点计算后验概率密度的Bayesian统计

采用平滑函数对不规则的后验概率密度曲面(PPDS)进行平滑化

从而在置信的95尹。区域评价共聚反应竞聚率(r1

r2)。本方法用于计算苯乙烯-丙烯酸丁酯二元共聚反应时

所计算的竞聚率(rSt

rBA)与文献结果甚为一致。

Abstract

Simulation of chain propagation process of binery polymerization reaction with Monte-Carlo method and statistical probability treatment of estimating kinetic parameters were made. From statistical point of view

this is a Bayesian one in which a posterior probability density surface(PPDS) is calculated for points on a grid in the parameter space. A smoothing function is fitted to the PPDS

then reactivity ratios (r1

r2) are calculated for confidence region. When this method was used to estimate reactivity ratios of styrene-butyl acrylate copolymer

it was in good agreement with that obtained by normal calculating kinetic parameter methed.

关键词

Monte Carlo模拟概率统计处理竞聚率苯乙烯-丙烯酸丁酯共聚物

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