Simulation of chain propagation process of binery polymerization reaction with Monte-Carlo method and statistical probability treatment of estimating kinetic parameters were made. From statistical point of view

this is a Bayesian one in which a posterior probability density surface(PPDS) is calculated for points on a grid in the parameter space. A smoothing function is fitted to the PPDS

then reactivity ratios (r1

r2) are calculated for confidence region. When this method was used to estimate reactivity ratios of styrene-butyl acrylate copolymer

it was in good agreement with that obtained by normal calculating kinetic parameter methed.